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Sustainability Command Center 14 items

Climate Scenario Analysis Readiness Checklist

Structure a climate scenario analysis to test business strategy resilience against physical and transition risks across multiple warming pathways.

TCFDIFRS S2NGFS Scenarios

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Governance & Objectives

  • Has the objective and intended use of the scenario analysis been defined? *
  • Is there board and management oversight of the scenario analysis process? *
  • Have the material climate-related risks and opportunities to be tested been identified? *

Scenario Selection

  • Are multiple scenarios selected, including a well-below 2 degree (e.g., 1.5C) pathway? *
  • Are reference scenarios sourced from recognized providers (IEA, NGFS, IPCC)? *
  • Do scenarios cover both transition and physical risk dimensions? *
  • Are the time horizons (short, medium, long term) defined and aligned with asset lifetimes? *

Impact Assessment

  • Are transition risk drivers (policy, carbon price, technology, market) quantified under each scenario? *
  • Are physical risk exposures (acute and chronic hazards) assessed for key assets and value chains? *
  • Are financial impacts on revenue, costs, assets, and capital estimated? *
  • Are climate-related opportunities assessed under each scenario? *

Response & Disclosure

  • Has the resilience of the strategy been evaluated against the scenario outcomes? *
  • Have strategic responses and adaptation actions been identified? *
  • Are the methodology, assumptions, and results disclosed transparently? *

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